June 7th to 9th, 2024

Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA

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What is Manifest?

A festival for forecasting and prediction markets, hosted by Manifold and Manifund.
Learn more →

Manifest 2023

The inaugural Manifest was held in September last year. 250 attendees spent a weekend hanging out, running talks and workshops, insider trading, and doing other prediction market shenanigans.

"manifest conference was so fun 10/10 recommend"
- Aella
“The vibes were immaculate. I was actively excited by easily 70% of the talks and side conversations. Fantastic.”
- Molly H
“I think this is the first festival (of very many total) I've attended that has made me feel genuinely sad afterwards that it has ended.”
- Richard K
“It's like I walked through the wardrobe into Narnia for years, and now that I've left it was somehow no time at all.”
- Joshua F

PLUS: Summer camp

Manifest 2024 will bring back the things people raved about last year — the beautiful venue, the strong community, the engaging talks — with one extra twist:

We're hosting Manifest Summer Camp in the week leading up to the main event, Jun 3 - Jun 7. By day, cowork and collaborate; by night, join fireside chats, karaoke, games, popups and more. All of this directly at the world's coziest venue, Lighthaven!

The Lightcone team is also planning LessOnline, an unconference centered around rationalist bloggers and their ideas, the weekend prior.

So book your flights & lodging with room to spare; we'll see you at camp~

Fri, May 31
Sat, Jun 1
Sun, Jun 2
Mon, Jun 3
Tue, Jun 4
Wed, Jun 5
Thu, Jun 6
Fri, Jun 7
Sat, Jun 8
Sun, Jun 9

Special Guests

Nate Silver
Statistician, author, & founder of 538
Robin Hanson
Economist & professor
Sex researcher & writer of Knowingless
Scott Alexander
Psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten
Shayne Coplan
Founder & CEO of Polymarket
Dwarkesh Patel
Host of the
Dwarkesh Podcast
Byrne Hobart
Writer of The Diff
Simone &
Malcolm Collins
Patrick McKenzie
Writer of
Bits About Money
Tracing Woodgrains
Allison Duettmann
President & CEO of
the Foresight Institute
Steve Hsu
Physics professor &
host of Manifold
Aaron Silverbook
Founder of Lantern Bioworks
Evan Conrad
Founder of SF Compute
Michael Lai
SF politician, ex-Director of Minerva
Rob Miles
AI Safety researcher & Youtuber
Cate Hall
Executive director
of Astera
Niko McCarty
Founding Editor of Asimov Press
Xander Balwit
Founding Editor of Asimov Press
Austin Chen
Cofounder of Manifold
Stephen Grugett
Cofounder of Manifold
James Grugett
Cofounder of Manifold
More coming soon!
See last year's speakers

Main Tickets

Buy a ticket


Get full access to Manifest!

  • Admission to the Lighthaven venue
  • Access to 3 days of talks, workshops, and events
  • 5 meals + snacks throughout the weekend


Half off for students enrolled in high school or university.

  • Admission to the Lighthaven venue
  • Access to 3 days of talks, workshops, and events
  • 5 meals + snacks throughout the weekend


For those who want to pitch in extra to make Manifest possible. As a thank you, supporters get some extra perks!

  • Everything included with a standard ticket
  • A VIP dinner with guests of honor, speakers, and the Manifold team
  • Credit for your support on the website, swag, and your badge
  • Our thanks for helping make Manifest possible!

Save with mana! Get 10% off by sending M2000 to @ManifestConference on Manifold, and applying the promo code managram2000 at checkout. This only applies to main Manifest tickets, not the extra event tickets listed below.

Extra Event Tickets

All-in ★


Afternoon of May 31st - June 9th

Includes access to Manifest, Summer Camp, and LessOnline, covering 10 days of activities at Lighthaven!

After you book your ticket, you'll get an email with more information about booking rooms at Lighthaven, which is optional but highly encouraged!

Summer Camp


June 3rd- June 7th

Come hang out at Lighthaven with other Manifest attendees the week leading up to Manifest! Cowork and share meals during the day, attend workshops and talks in the evening, and enjoy conversations by the fire late into the night.



Afternoon of May 31st - June 2nd

Lightcone, the team behind LessWrong and the Lighthaven Campus, is putting on their own festival the weekend prior to Manifest! LessOnline will center around the writings and the ideas of LessWrong and adjacent rationalist bloggers—many of whom will be present—and will take an unconference format.

Fri, May 31
Sat, Jun 1
Sun, Jun 2
Mon, Jun 3
Tue, Jun 4
Wed, Jun 5
Thu, Jun 6
Fri, Jun 7
Sat, Jun 8
Sun, Jun 9


In order to make the full event more accessible to guests with families, we're planning to offer on-site childcare during the day throughout Manifest and the events leading up to Manifest! We are still working out the details, but this will most likely be offered from 10am - 8pm, for children 2 years and up, and cost in the low hundreds per child.

More information about childcare forthcoming; register interest in here.

Get your tickets

Our Supporters

Huge thanks to those who pitched in extra to support Manifest 2024. So far this year, that includes Barak Gila, Dean Valentine, Oleg Eterevsky, Anton Makiievsky, Nate Soares, Anil Jason, Rif Saruous, Ravi Parikh, and Andrey Anurin.


Want to sponsor Manifest? Schedule a meeting with Saul here, or email him at Take a look at our pricing & perks here!

Want to speak at Manifest? Great news! Manifest is a collaborative festival — you'll be able to run your own side-session(s) on whatever you'd like. If you're interested in giving a more central talk, please email

For any other questions, join us on Discord!