June 7th to 9th, 2024

Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA

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Event schedule

What is Manifest?

A festival for forecasting and prediction markets, hosted by Manifold and Manifund.
Learn more →

Manifest 2023

The inaugural Manifest was held in September last year. 250 attendees spent a weekend hanging out, running talks and workshops, insider trading, and doing other prediction market shenanigans.

"manifest conference was so fun 10/10 recommend"
- Aella
“The vibes were immaculate. I was actively excited by easily 70% of the talks and side conversations. Fantastic.”
- Molly H
“I think this is the first festival (of very many total) I've attended that has made me feel genuinely sad afterwards that it has ended.”
- Richard K
“It's like I walked through the wardrobe into Narnia for years, and now that I've left it was somehow no time at all.”
- Joshua F

PLUS: Summer camp

Manifest 2024 will bring back the things people raved about last year — the beautiful venue, the strong community, the engaging talks — with one extra twist:

We're hosting Manifest Summer Camp in the week leading up to the main event, Jun 3 - Jun 7. By day, cowork and collaborate; by night, join fireside chats, karaoke, games, popups and more. All of this directly at the world's coziest venue, Lighthaven!

The Lightcone team is also planning LessOnline, an unconference centered around rationalist bloggers and their ideas, the weekend prior.

So book your flights & lodging with room to spare; we'll see you at camp~

Fri, May 31
Sat, Jun 1
Sun, Jun 2
Mon, Jun 3
Tue, Jun 4
Wed, Jun 5
Thu, Jun 6
Fri, Jun 7
Sat, Jun 8
Sun, Jun 9

Special Guests

Nate Silver
Statistician & writer of Silver Bulletin
Luana Lopes Lara
Cofounder of
Robin Hanson
Economist & professor
Scott Alexander
Psychiatrist & writer of Astral Codex Ten
Niraek Jain-sharma
Head of Data at
Byrne Hobart
Writer of The Diff
Sex researcher & writer of Knowingless
Dwarkesh Patel
Host of the
Dwarkesh Podcast
Patrick McKenzie
Writer of
Bits About Money
Chris Best
Cofounder & CEO of
Ben Mann
Cofounder of Anthropic
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Researcher at MIRI
Cate Hall
Executive director
of Astera
Paul Gu
Cofounder of Upstart
John Phillips
Cofounder & CEO of
Allison Duettmann
President & CEO of
the Foresight Institute
Dan Schwarz
Cofounder & CEO of
Alex Gajewski
Cofounder & CEO of SF Compute
Katja Grace
Lead Researcher of AI Impacts
Kelsey Piper
Senior writer for
Future Perfect, Vox
Steve Hsu
Physics professor &
host of Manifold Podcast
Agnes Callard
Philosophy professor
Joe Carlsmith
Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy
Daniel Reeves
Cofounder & CEO of Beeminder
Misha Glouberman
Executive coach, author, event runner
Ajeya Cotra
Senior Program Officer
at OpenPhil
Clara Collier
Editor in Chief of
Samo Burja
President of
Bismark Analysis
Stephen Grugett
Cofounder of Manifold
James Grugett
Cofounder of Manifold
And: Javier Prieto, Simone & Malcolm Collins, Jay Baxter, Tracing Woodgrains, Razib Khan, Max Tabarrok, Brian Chau, Gene Smith, Gavriel Kleinwaks, Niko McCarty, Xander Balwit, Jeremiah Johnson, Ozzie Gooen, Danny Halawi, Regan Arntz-Gray, Sarah Constantin, Frank Lantz, Will Jarvis, Stuart Buck, Jonathan Anomaly, Evan Miyazono, Rob Miles, Richard Hanania, Nate Soares, Holly Elmore, Josh Morrison, Deger Turan...

and more!
See last year's speakers

Main Tickets

Buy a ticket


Get full access to Manifest!

  • Admission to the Lighthaven venue
  • Access to 3 days of talks, workshops, and events
  • 5 meals + snacks throughout the weekend


Half off for students enrolled in high school or university.

  • Admission to the Lighthaven venue
  • Access to 3 days of talks, workshops, and events
  • 5 meals + snacks throughout the weekend


For those who want to pitch in extra to make Manifest possible. As a thank you, supporters get some extra perks!

  • Everything included with a standard ticket, and...
  • A VIP dinner with guests of honor, speakers, and the Manifold team
  • Credit for your support on the website, swag, and your badge
  • Our thanks for helping make Manifest possible!

We offer refunds for any reason, up to 7 days after the festival. Email if you'd like to cancel your tickets and receive a refund.

Save with mana! Get 10% off by sending M20000 to @ManifestConference on Manifold, and applying the promo code managram20000 at checkout. This only applies to main Manifest tickets, not the extra event tickets listed below.

Extra Event Tickets

All-in ★


Afternoon of May 31st - June 9th

Includes access to Manifest, Summer Camp, and LessOnline, covering 10 days of activities at Lighthaven!

After you book your ticket, you'll get an email with more information about booking rooms at Lighthaven, which is optional but highly encouraged!

Summer Camp


June 3rd- June 7th

Come hang out at Lighthaven with other Manifest attendees the week leading up to Manifest! Cowork and share meals during the day, attend workshops and talks in the evening, and enjoy conversations by the fire late into the night.



Afternoon of May 31st - June 2nd

Lightcone, the team behind LessWrong and the Lighthaven Campus, is putting on their own festival the weekend prior to Manifest! LessOnline will center around the writings and the ideas of LessWrong and adjacent rationalist bloggers—many of whom will be present—and will take an unconference format.

Fri, May 31
Sat, Jun 1
Sun, Jun 2
Mon, Jun 3
Tue, Jun 4
Wed, Jun 5
Thu, Jun 6
Fri, Jun 7
Sat, Jun 8
Sun, Jun 9


Manifest is a family-friendly event! Bring your kids, we'd love to see them :-)

  • For ages 2-10, tickets are $50/event, and below that age kids come free.
  • We'll be offering a day care service onsite, from 10 AM to 7 PM.
  • Daycare pricing is $30/hour, or $150 for "4 hours every day", or $200 for "as much as you want" if you book in advance

If you'd like childcare outside the hours of 10 AM to 7 PM, please indicate it on the booking form and we will connect you with a nanny service at $45/hour.

Get child tickets and daycare through the LessOnline website.

Get your tickets

Our sponsors

Featuring: Niraek Jain-sharma
Featuring: Luana Lopes Lara, Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, Terry Oldreal,
Luis Usier, Brandon Beckhardt & Noah Sternig
And our supporters: Barak Gila, Dean Valentine, Oleg Eterevsky, Anton Makiievsky, Nate Soares, Anil Jason, Rif Saruous, Ravi Parikh, Andrey Anurin, Jeff Tamer, Natalie Vershov, and Nikolai Yakovenko.

Our Team

Rachel Weinberg
Cofounder & SWE at Manifund
Saul Munn
Cofounder of OPTIC, Operations at Manifund
Austin Chen
Cofounder & CEO of Manifund; Cofounder of Manifold


Want to sponsor Manifest? Schedule a meeting with Saul here, or email him at Take a look at our pricing & perks here!

Want to speak at Manifest? Great news! Manifest is a collaborative festival — you'll be able to run your own side-session(s) on whatever you'd like. If you're interested in giving a more central talk, please email

Want to stay in the loop on Manifest? Follow us on twitter, or join Manifold's newsletter below.
For any other questions, join us on Discord!